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Independents' day: undeclared voters key on Tuesday

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By JOHN WHITSON AND SCOTT BROOKS
New Hampshire Union Leader

Hollis resident Janet Chaney likes John McCain, but thinks Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani are OK, too.

Any one of those Republicans could get her vote, she said -- that is, unless she gives her vote to a Democrat. Then, she said, she'll probably choose Barack Obama.

"I don't know," said Chaney, who attended a McCain rally Friday afternoon. "It depends on the debates (this weekend). Then I'll make up my mind."

Chaney isn't alone among Granite Staters who find themselves torn in these last few days before the New Hampshire Primary. And while some voters from each party are still struggling to settle on a candidate, perhaps no other voting bloc may be less predictable than the largest one: the independents, who will have the opportunity to vote in either the Democratic or Republican contest.

All of the campaigns are hoping to persuade those voters to swing their way. For some candidates -- especially Sens. McCain and Obama, local experts say -- those votes could make a world of difference.

"A lot of these voters tend to be attracted to what's new about American politics, and especially after (the Iowa caucuses), there's that new, celebrity status attached to Obama," said Dante Scala, associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire.

McCain, he said, draws independents leaning Republican because "committed Republicans have always been suspicious of John McCain. That's exactly what undecided, independent types like about him."

Nearly 45 percent of registered voters in the state are undeclared, and at least 30 percent of those folks are expected to show up at the polls Tuesday. Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, predicts the independent turnout could be as high as 50 percent.

The majority of independents, perhaps 60 percent, are expected to vote Democratic this year, Smith said. In 2000, a similar percentage went Republican.

Smith said that shift is based more on demographics -- more people having moved north from Massachusetts and other states -- than dissatisfaction with President Bush.

Picking a party at the polls

"We've got different people in the state," he said.

Independents made up a large chunk of the crowd at McCain rallies this weekend. The Arizona senator has worked hard to court them, at one point trotting out Sen. Joe Lieberman, a Connecticut Democrat-turned-independent, to bolster his reputation as a politician who can reach across the aisle.

"Independents clearly play a pivotal role in the primary," said Michael Dennehy, the McCain campaign's national political director. "And the one thing we do know about independents, in particular, is they are looking for someone with character and integrity, someone who knows how to shake up Washington and break through the gridlock."

Dennehy said he expects independents will make up just a quarter of voters in the Republican primary. Most of them will be voters who are registered as independent but tend to lean Republican, he said.

Still, he said, it's likely that some independents -- perhaps 20 to 30 percent of those who vote -- have no party loyalties whatsoever and could vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary.

"Some would say we're competing against Democrats" for those voters, Dennehy said. "But it's important to note that a large segment of the undeclared voters who vote on Election Day lean Republican, and a large segment lean Democratic."

Though they agree Obama and McCain stand the best chance of winning over that bloc, local pollsters and pundits said there's little danger the two campaigns will hurt each other.

"There probably are some people who are genuinely that independent," said Dean Spiliotes, who runs NHPoliticalCapital.com, "but there's not much issue overlap" between Obama and McCain.

New Hampshire pollster Dick Bennett said precious few independents struggling with the Clinton-Obama-Edwards triumvirate are likely to seriously consider GOP candidates. UNH's Scala agreed.

"Even though they may like John McCain, I don't think a lot of them will cross over and vote Republican," Scala said.

Secretary of State William Gardner estimates a record 500,000 New Hampshire residents will vote Tuesday.

YOUR COMMENTS


I’m delighted that everyone is finally discussing seriously the impact of independents in our election process. One recommendation however, Andy Smith and the other “experts” are not independent, they are only pundits. They all got it wrong. Why not talk to independent organizations like NHCIV, like Obama did. Stop looking in the usual places. The usual pundits are as established as Washington. Thanks, good piece.
- Russ Ouellette, Bedford, NH

Thank you for managing to bring yourselves to mention John Edwards, even if it took you till the 4th from last sentence of the article to do so. I am amazed and appalled at what an outstanding job the national and local papers are STILL doing of burying any mention of the second-place finisher in the Iowa caucus.

New Hampshire voters, please take the time to consider John Edwards. He is, in my view, truly the agent of change we need in the United States. He consistently polls the most strongly against ALL the Republican candidates, and this without spending a third of what Obama and Clinton have spent on their campaigns.
- Daphne Charette, Berlin, NH

I believe that Mitt Romney is finished. He is far too negative about his fellow republicans. This should be about unity, not division. I seem him as a mean-spirited individual, much like Hillary Clinton.
- richard j. kelly, jersey city, new jersey

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