Sox Beat: Will Hoyer trade Gonzalez to Sox?

JED HOYER won't have to worry too much about backlash from fans in San Diego in the coming months. The Theo Epstein disciple and Plymouth native almost certainly earned his new job as Padres' general manager based on his long-term plan for the franchise, and no immediate outcry is going to be a threat to his job.

There still might be outcry, though, if he trades away slugging first baseman Adrian Gonzalez -- especially if he trades him to his old mentor back in Boston. But he'd be doing the right thing for his team. A trade of Gonzalez for prospects like Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland and maybe even a major-league arm like Daniel Bard would make sense for both the Padres and the Red Sox.

The Padres' hiring of Hoyer on Monday brings to four the number of New Hampshire-bred general managers of major-league teams. Amherst's Neal Huntington runs the Pittsburgh Pirates, Concord's Brian Sabean runs the San Francisco Giants and North Hampton's Bill Smith runs the Minnesota Twins.

Smith traded away two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana immediately upon taking over his job with Minnesota, an unpleasant task made necessary by the financial realities the Twins face. Hoyer might have to do the same thing with Gonzalez, the face of the Padres whose contract extension expires in two years -- well before his team realistically can expect to contend.

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The Padres already traded ace Jake Peavy as part of a roster-gutting season that left the Padres well below .500 without much left in the cupboard. Infielder David Eckstein might be the most recognizable name on the roster Hoyer is inheriting -- other than Gonzalez, anyway -- but a mediocre middle infielder isn't exactly the franchise cornerstone on which the new general manager wants to build his team.

The farm system isn't much better. Baseball America, in fact, ranked the Padres' organization 29th out of 30 major-league teams before the season, and they didn't draft much in the way of impact talent that's close to contributing.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, are in imminent danger of falling behind both the Rays and the Yankees in the American League East. Jason Bay is headed for free agency and no lock to return. Mike Lowell is getting older. David Ortiz is getting older. Even Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis and J.D. Drew are 30 or older.

Gonzalez, on the other hand, will turn 28 next season and would fit perfectly into the Red Sox lineup with Martinez catching and Youkilis playing third base full-time. He hit 40 home runs a year ago and finished fifth in the National League in OPS (on-base plus slugging) -- ahead of Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Braun and Ryan Howard.

Even better, as far as the Red Sox are concerned, Gonzalez had an on-base percentage of .407 and led the National League in bases on balls. Part of his high walk total might have been due to the lackluster lineup around him -- something that wouldn't be a factor if he were hitting between Martinez and Youkilis in the middle of the Red Sox lineup. About all he didn't do was drive in 100 runs -- but that, again, probably would change if he were hitting behind Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia rather than Eckstein and Eveleth Cabrera.

The Red Sox don't have much in the way of prospects ready for the major leagues. The Padres, though, aren't in position to contend right away, anyway. A trade of Gonzalez would put a target on the 2012 season -- the year after the first baseman's contract is scheduled to expire, anyway. A package of prospects like Bard, Kelly, Westmoreland and sluggers such as Lars Anderson or Ryan Kalish would give the Padres plenty of ammunition for a pennant push in 2012 -- and beyond.

The Red Sox, with their resources, can afford to make that type of move. Not only do they have the ability to go out and sign free agents to replace the prospects they'd planned on plugging into their major-league roster, but they have the ability to find and pay draft picks who slide into the low rounds because of their high price tags -- just as Anderson and Kalish did. The next Kelly and the next Westmoreland are waiting for them in next June's draft.

Hoyer won't be able to overspend to sign his low-level draft picks in San Diego. He won't be able to send an army of scouts to Latin America to scout a 19-year-old shortstop who defected from Cuba the way the Red Sox did -- let alone to spend $8 million on a 19-year-old shortstop.

Instead, he'll need to have big-market teams like the Red Sox do it for him, flipping his most valuable major-league pieces for prospects who already have been discovered and rewarded with lucrative signing bonuses. Blue-chip talents like Kelly and Westmoreland are the type of players who might be expendable in Boston but who might become franchise cornerstones in San Diego.

Hoyer won't exactly endear himself to Padres fans if he immediately ships out one of the best hitters in the major leagues, the face of the franchise who might be one of the few reasons fans show up at Petco Park these days.

He'll endear himself to Padres fans, though, if the package he gets in return to Gonzalez turns the Padres into one of the best teams in the National League by 2012 or 2013.

Brian MacPherson covers the Red Sox for the New Hampshire Union Leader and Sunday News.