Dean Phillips speaks exuberantly about his plans and the results of the Primary in New Hampshire at his campaign headquarters on Primary Night with supporters.
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley hosts a campaign event at Union Hall in Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S. March 2, 2024.
LET’S SEE IF any of the vaunted Super Tuesday states matched New Hampshire’s presidential primary turnout.
The Democratic National Committee’s “anointed” states — South Carolina and Michigan — didn’t come close.
Counting both the Democratic and Republican primaries, roughly 890,000 voted in the Palmetto State on Feb. 3 and Feb. 24.
That’s 23.3% of all South Carolina voters.
In the Great Lakes State on Tuesday, the picture was similar: 1.8 million of 8.28 million registered voters went to the polls, a turnout of about 22%.
In the Granite State, more than half of all voters (451,238) cast ballots on Jan. 23.
That’s not even the full story.
There were many reasons to expect both states to exceed New Hampshire’s turnout, starting with incumbent President Joe Biden not being on the ballot in this state.
Not only was Biden on the ballot in Michigan and South Carolina, he campaigned in both states after personally orchestrating the line-jumping that put them at the top of the schedule.
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley hosts a campaign event at Union Hall in Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S. March 2, 2024.
Randall Hill/REUTERS
In South Carolina, where former Gov. Nikki Haley arguably was making her last stand against former President Donald Trump, about 28% of all registered voters cast a GOP primary ballot. Unlike New Hampshire, South Carolina requires voters to participate in their party’s primary.
In New Hampshire, 36.3% of voters took part in the Republican race.
Michigan has the third-highest voter registration rate in the country as of 2022, with an impressive 77% of all adults signed up to vote.
But you didn’t see primary day video of long lines of voters winding outside the polling places and down the streets in Michigan, because there weren’t any.
By voting day, 61% of all presidential primary ballots (1.1 million) had been cast in Michigan through early voting.
It’s hard to make it easier to vote in Michigan, but lawmakers there keep trying.
In 2019, they approved no-excuse absentee ballot voting.
On Tuesday, about half of all those who cast ballots (934,000) in Michigan did so by absentee.
Any Michigan resident is automatically registered to vote when they renew a driver’s license or apply for Medicaid, unless they opt out.
In October, the Michigan House approved a bill to return someone’s voter registration status to them upon release from prison with the renewal of a driver’s license. The bill would permit other state agencies to register citizens.
Like New Hampshire, Michigan allows all its residents to register to vote at the polls.
With national media coverage focused on how many might write in “uncommitted” to protest President Joe Biden’s policy on the war in Gaza, 740,000 or 8.9% of all registered voters in Michigan, cast a Democratic ballot.
In New Hampshire, with no incumbent on the ballot and very little attention being paid to a completely noncompetitive race, 14% (125,811) of all registered voters cast a Democratic ballot.
Here’s another Wolverine quirk. In Michigan, GOP voters picked only 16 delegates to the national convention at their primary.
The other 39 GOP delegates were selected based on the results of caucuses last Saturday.
Special elections coming
House Democrats expect to add two to their caucus when voters in Strafford and Rockingham Counties fill seats in special elections on Town Meeting Day (March 12)
Jennifer Mandelbaum of Portsmouth is the overwhelming favorite for the Newington-Portsmouth Ward 1 seat exited by former Rep. Robin Vogt, D-Portsmouth, when he moved out of the district.
Carol Bush of Newington is the Republican candidate.
The election date may present a small problem for Dems.
Town meeting could boost turnout a bit in Newington, which is not a Democratic town (278 Republicans, 195 Democrats, 217 independents).
However, Mandelbaum’s deep-blue home ward should more than make up that difference (653 Republicans, 1467 Democrats and 1,106 independents).
Democrat Erik Johnson of Lee likely will beat Joseph Bazo of Madbury in Strafford District 11, which includes Dover Ward 4, Lee and Madbury. Democrats have a 15-point advantage in party registration in the district (2,044 Republicans, 3,233 Democrats, 2,929 independents).
The winner replaces the late Rep. Hoy Robert Menear, D-Lee, who died in November.
AFP vs. State of the Union
The state chapter of the fiscally conservative Americans for Prosperity has two events timed to President Biden’s State of the Union speech this coming week.
The group hosts a forum on Bidenomics on Wednesday from noon to 1:30 at Daw Kun Thai Cuisine on 93 S. Maple St. in Manchester.
On Thursday night, the group hosts a Biden speech watch party at its Manchester headquarters, 1025 S. Willow St.
A few big shoes dropped this past week in the competitive Democratic primary for governor.
The N.H. AFL-CIO, the state’s largest union with about 40,000 members, came out for former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig.
Numerous building trade AFL locals already had endorsed Craig.
Two days later, Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington announced that the State Employees Association/Service Employees International Union 1984 had backed her gubernatorial bid.
“Councilor Warmington’s steadfast commitment to New Hampshire’s workforce and her dedication to enhancing the lives of all Granite Staters have been truly inspiring,” SEA/SEIU President Rich Gulla said in a statement.
The SEA likely is not done. Several months ago, the union said it planned to interview candidates in the two major parties and didn’t rule out picking sides in both.
The SEA is the largest union representing state government employees in New Hampshire.
The largest public employee union is the National Education Association of New Hampshire.
Every two years, the call the NEA makes has its own impact; just ask the candidates who didn’t get it.
What’s notable here is the timing. These decisions often come later.
Union execs fully understand an endorsement can have more weight when voters are paying attention to the upcoming election. Right now, most aren’t.
This speaks to the stakes, the closeness of the contest and how hard both candidates are pushing that so many labor groups decided they needed to pick a side early.
A non-mea culpa
Who knew that the deepfake audio was really an altruistic crusade?
That’s Steve Kramer’s story. He told the Associated Press that he organized the robocall that used an AI-generated version of Biden’s voice to urge Democrats not to vote in New Hampshire’s primary because he wanted to highlight the dangers of artificial intelligence.
“Maybe I’m a villain today, but I think in the end we get a better country and better democracy because of what I’ve done — deliberately,” Kramer said.
Kramer said he made a New Year’s resolution to highlight the issue after being frustrated with the slow pace of AI regulation at the state and federal levels.
“By deliberately doing it on Sunday night before the Tuesday primary when even people who aren’t involved in politics are at least casually watching what’s going on … gave me a way to wake up the whole country,” Kramer said.
Don’t expect a thank-you card from New Hampshire Democrats, Mr. Kramer.
Dean Phillips speaks exuberantly about his plans and the results of the Primary in New Hampshire at his campaign headquarters on Primary Night with supporters.
Allegra Boverman
Kramer was paid more than a quarter of a million dollars as a consultant to the long-shot presidential campaign of Dean Phillips, but he insists the campaign knew nothing about the scheme.
“I wrestled in college; I’m ready for the fight,” Kramer said. “If they want to throw me in jail, good luck. Good luck, and I meant that.”
Kramer’s “altruism” in past campaigns has not been without controversy.
In 2021, a former client running for New York mayor, Republican Sara Tirschwell, sued Kramer, accusing him of tanking her campaign by submitting petition signatures that were mostly invalid. Ballot access is one of Kramer’s specialties and was included in the work he did for Phillips in New York and Pennsylvania.
Kramer denied the accusations.
A former compliance officer to New York public advocate candidate Nomiki Konst lodged a formal complaint about payments made to Deep South Consulting, a Louisiana firm that Kramer took money from. Konst claimed the complaint was political.
As anyone can see from this Politico story, a lot of curious accounting was alleged.
No Labels search
A rumor relit on the hot stove is that the No Labels Campaign is willing to take a look at outgoing New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu as its candidate.
This hasn’t been the best month for the nonpartisan group, which already is on the general election ballots of more than half the states.
Retiring Sen. Joe Manchin and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan are among those who have passed on being the No Labels alternative.
Sununu was on the speaking circuit this past week, addressing a health care symposium at Pepperdine University.
Would he be interested? Probably not.
Like Haley, Sununu has said he expected to support the GOP nominee this fall — even if it’s Trump.
Haley lost her chief benefactor — the Koch Brothers network — following her loss to Trump in South Carolina, but Sununu said campaign cash will not be a problem for Haley, whom he endorsed in the New Hampshire primary.
“We’re tired of losers. We want winners,” Sununu told CNBC’s Last Call. And that’s why the money continues to pour in.”
Happy birthdays
House staff held a late birthday party for Speaker Sherman Packard, R-Londonderry, who turned 75 last Sunday.
House Chief of Staff Aaron Goulette also celebrated his birthday on Thursday.
Other leap year babies of note in New Hampshire politics include state Sen. Tim Lang, R-Sanbornton, who “turned 11” on Thursday and New England College president Wayne Lesperance.
NEC snagged the graduation speaker award of the month with news that Doonesbury creator Garry Trudeau will deliver the address and receive an honorary doctorate when he visits the Henniker campus on May 18.
New gov candidate
The Constitution Party of New Hampshire plans to announce its candidate for governor in 2024 on Sunday. The group is having an event from 1 to 4 p.m. at the Hope in Christ Church in Chichester.
NH DeSantis alumni
Two staffers with the Ron DeSantis’s New Hampshire presidential campaign are heading south a little ways.
Massachusetts U.S. Senate candidate John Deaton has named Michael Gorecki to manage his campaign and Tyler Flanigan to be deputy campaign manager.
Gorecki most recently was state director for DeSantis’s campaign in New Hampshire, and Flanigan was the state field director for Never Back Down, the DeSantis-aligned Super PAC.
Deaton, a GOP attorney, recently announced his long-shot bid to unseat U.S. Sen. and 2020 presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.
In 2022, Gorecki managed the 2022 GOP primary-winning campaign of Karoline Leavitt, who lost in the general election to U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H.
Leavitt has since become Trump’s national press secretary.
GOP aide moves to Ayotte
GOP Chairman Chris Ager has a staff opening with the announcement that Jimmy Thompson is moving on to join Kelly Ayotte’s GOP campaign for governor.
Thompson previously worked on Don Bolduc’s U.S. Senate campaign in 2022.
This past week, Berlin Mayor Robert Cone joined three GOP city councilors in endorsing Ayotte
GOP women still feuding
The latest product of strife within the New Hampshire Federation of Republican Women is the formation of the New Hampshire Republican Women group.
Leading the new group is Republican National Committeewoman-elect Mary Jane Beauregard, who easily won election over Elizabeth Girard.
Girard, who is president of the federation group, upset many of her colleagues by endorsing Trump.
Federation officers are supposed to remain neutral. Ex-House Deputy Speaker Kim Rice had to leave the group when she took a prominent role in Haley’s campaign.
This new group is intended to supplant the federation as the preeminent GOP women’s group — at least as long as Girard runs the federation.
The New Hampshire Journal first reported this development.
Ethics panel weighs in
The Legislative Ethics Committee just issued two advisory opinions of note.
House Environment and Agriculture Committee Chair Judy Aron, R-Acworth, asked whether members who received campaign contributions from the Humane Society Legislative Fund should recuse themselves from voting on issues the group lobbied on. She said the fund sent her a $500 donation in November.
The ethics panel said no recusal was necessary. ”It is the responsibility of her committee members to decide for themselves whether they should accept legal campaign contributions from individuals or organizations who may support or oppose legislation that could come before them,” the panel wrote.
Senate Legal Counsel Rick Lehmann asked whether Senate Majority Leader Sharon Carson, R-Londonderry, or Sen. Dan Innis, R-Webster, had to abstain from voting on higher education matters because Carson teaches part time at Nashua Community College and Innis is a tenured professor at the University of New Hampshire.
The ethics group agreed with Lehmann’s legal argument that neither must recuse themselves, even on issues that USNH lobbied on in Concord, saying that “in their positions as instructors, they clearly are unable to exercise substantial influence over the affairs of those organizations.”
